2024 Holiday Spending Plans
Despite inflation and individual economic concerns, many Americans are ready to spend this holiday season.
US consumers expect to spend 8% more on holiday expenses in 2024 than they did in 2023 – about $1,020 per household, on average.
However, how much they spend is based on their unique circumstances. Among Americans with an annual household income under $75,000 (nearly half of the US population), holiday expenses are up 8% over 2023, while those earning $75,000 to $200,000 are spending 15% more.
Millennials plan to spend the most of any age group and will increase their spending 15% over 2023; and Gen Z plans to increase their spending 21%.
Still, it’s important to assess these consumer-reported expectations alongside projections from major consumer brands, economic conditions, and other market forces to present a clearer picture of expected economic growth for the fourth quarter 2024.
Based on historical performance, self-reported expectations from consumers for the upcoming seasons, and feedback from retail leaders, actual performance for the holiday season is predicted to be more in the 6-8% year-over-year growth range, taking into account the current headwinds in the macroeconomy.
Browsing vs. Purchasing Holiday Gifts
Sure, shoppers plan to delight loved ones with gifts – but they can’t resist spending on themselves.
Holiday expenses are mostly comprised of gifts for others (which make up half of total spend), but also include gifts or treats for oneself (14%), along with experiences (11%), decorations (10%), and outfits (9%).
In fact, consumers say that after shopping for their immediate family members, friends, and significant others, 42% plan to shop for themselves – before extended family, pets, and others.
While some shoppers know what they want to buy (64% ask recipients what they want as a gift), many are also influenced by offers and sales (50%) or look up gift ideas online (32%), on social media (25%), or use AI (8%).
Where consumers shop for gifts, however, is not necessarily where they purchase. For example, consumers browse more on social media but buy more at big box or superstores. Where do they both browse and buy? Amazon.
In the digital age where consumers can browse online to compare products, read reviews, and maybe purchase, brands must consider the role that each channel plays and ensure their channel strategy is tied to the consumer journey. Meanwhile, retailers need to pay attention to their target shoppers and adapt their sales dialog to influence the purchase process.
Holiday Budgets & Tips to Save
Major brands and retailers reveal how consumers can save this season.
When it comes to holiday shopping, 62% of consumers prioritize staying within their budget. Their top strategies for saving include buying products on sales, shopping at discount stores, and shopping only on “deal days,” including Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
In fact, Black Friday is named as the single best deal day by half of consumers (49%), followed by Amazon Prime Day and Cyber Monday (both 14%), among others.
However, though it still attracts more consumers for holiday shopping than any other deal event day, participation in Black Friday is expected to be down 6% from 2023. Retailers and brands indicate that shopping on other deal days throughout the year can help shoppers save.
Brands and retailers are introducing more “deal days” (like Black Friday or Prime Day) in an effort to distribute their sales more evenly throughout the year – also benefiting consumers with more deals and chances to find the best prices. While this strategy helps companies even out earnings and performance throughout the year, it puts pressure on merchandising teams to ensure that their promotional calendar is constantly optimized, and that campaigns and events meet their objectives.
Current Events
Will the US Presidential Election and inflation affect holiday sales?
Nearly half of US consumers (48%) say the outcome of the election will affect their holiday spending plans in 2024.
The reasons appear to be economical. Overall, 80% of Americans say they have changed their shopping habits in some way over the past 1-2 years due to inflation. Now, those who said the election would affect spending are more concerned about inflation and a recession than others. They are planning to get an earlier start to their holiday shopping, look for deals, and reduce their discretionary spending in the coming year.
That said, these election-wary consumers are more than twice as likely to donate to their political party in the election – and some will use their holiday funds to do so.
Also, the majority of Gen Z consumers (63%) and millennials (55%) say the election will impact their holiday spending, compared to fewer Gen X (46%) and Baby Boomers (31%).
The 2024 US presidential election, set against a backdrop of inflation and affordability concerns, may impact holiday spending for half of American consumers. With the election’s timing overlapping the holiday season, many shoppers will face trade-offs in their budgets, prioritizing essentials over festive splurges in this historic and economically charged environment.
Get the 2024 Holiday Shopping Report for more insights, including:
- What will they buy? Top gift categories include Electronics, Fashion Products, and Gift Cards.
- When will they shop? Most Americans start by the end of October, but some wait for Black Friday.
- What discounts do they expect? Only 15% of consumers expect discounts above 40% for big holiday deals, notably lower than in 2023.
- How do macrotrends continue to affect shopping behavior? Inflation still concerns some consumers, but much less so than last year, despite current events and politics.
Plus: View demographic data including age, gender, household size and income, and how families spend and plan for the holiday season.
About the report
Simon-Kucher’s 6th annual Holiday Shopping Study provides trusted insights into 2024 holiday spending, covering what Americans will buy, where, and why. Drawing from 1,000 US consumers and 200 retail leaders, this report explores budgeting, gift categories, digital shopping trends, and even the impact of major economic influences on holiday shopping plans. Download the full report for the most comprehensive holiday shopping insights and retail strategies to stay ahead of the season’s trends.
We invite you to explore Simon-Kucher’s 2024 Holiday Shopping Report and to share, reference, and publish the findings with attribution to Simon-Kucher and a link to this page. For additional information, including strategic recommendations for retail industry executives and complete report data and methodology, please contact pr-inquiries@simon-kucher.com.
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